The public work of Jiang Xueqin

Jiang joins Tucker Carlson to walk through what comes next in the Iran file — the leverage points, the timelines, and how the regional balance is likely to shift over the next six months. Game-theoretic framing throughout.

A long-form conversation with Gita Wirjawan on how to forecast geopolitics by reading incentives and constraints rather than narratives. Covers China, Indonesia, the US election aftermath, and the limits of prediction.

Jiang and Glenn Diesen argue that the framing of "are we heading toward WW3?" misses the point — the conflict is already running, distributed across theaters, and the question is now about which side adapts faster.

Jiang on Danny Haiphong's geopolitics show. Why the "multipolar world" framing is both correct in direction and misleading in mechanism, and what the next year of US-China posture looks like.

A tense panel debate on Piers Morgan Uncensored. Jiang argues that Western analytic frameworks systematically over-weight stated intentions and under-weight revealed constraints.

What both sides actually want, what they can credibly threaten, and where the equilibrium probably settles. A worked example of how Predictive History reasons about flashpoints without forecasting dates.

Why "X is collapsing" is the most overused frame in commentary, and what to substitute for it when reasoning about declining states. A short essay drawing on the Predictive History method.

A constraint-first read on how the Russia-Ukraine war ends — not who "should" win, but which exits are actually available to each side once you take the visible constraints seriously.

A self-audit of the calls I got wrong over the past year. The failure modes cluster — over-weighting elite signaling, under-weighting bureaucratic inertia, and assuming actors are unitary when they aren't.

The opening video of the channel. Why most geopolitical commentary is post-hoc storytelling, and what it would take to actually predict outcomes — incentives, constraints, and revealed preference.